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Ecological Forecasting
Ecological forecasting is a means of predicting future environmental conditions using models.
These models are based on previous observations and our scientific understanding of the environment. In much the same way that meteorologists can predict storms, scientists can predict ecological conditions on time scales from months to decades into the future.
Two areas in which the Chemical Impacts Team is pursuing ecological forecasting are hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and contaminant forecasting.
Case Study: Gulf of Mexico “Dead Zone”
Each summer an area of low oxygen persists off the coast of Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico . This "Dead Zone", as dubbed by local fishermen, varies in size from year to year but can reach to over 22,000 square kilometers (the size of New Jersey). This Dead Zone is caused by the over-enrichment of the system with nutrients from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers which leads to increased algal production. This results in a large biological oxygen demand when the algae die off and begin to decompose. A biogeochemical model developed by NOAA scientists predicts the current year size of the Dead Zone based on spring nutrient loadings to the system from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers.
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NOAA scientists first used this model to predict the size of the Gulf of Mexico Dead Zone in 2003.