IA general Caribbean coral reef model is being developed using the Ecopath-Ecosim-Ecospace approach, to assess potential reserve impacts and provide managers and researchers with realistic expectations for the magnitudes and time frames of changes in top predators (e.g., groupers and snappers), herbivores (e.g., surgeonfishes, urchins), and the entire coral community (e.g., scleractinian corals, gorgonians, "lesser" fish species). The general model is being applied to the proposed Turrumote reserve to generate a predictive database against which to compare the nature and timeframe of resulting community changes following closure.
The actual response of coral reef ecosystems to closure will be ascertained by the sampling programs being conducted inside and outside the three reserve areas under the Reef Processes and Coupling Species and Habitat: Habitat Utilization components.
Changes in % coral cover (black), % algal cover (red) and herbivore biomass (purple) in the Luis Peña Canal Marine Reserve, closed in 1999. Data suggest that increased herbivore biomass may be starting to control algal overgrowth of corals.
The biological success of marine reserves depends on preserving the ecological flows necessary to maintain system function. One important mechanism is the movement of fishes, particularly as they migrate ontogenetically from nearshore nursery areas to offshore adult habitats or as they migrate on a daily basis among reef, seagrass, sand or mangrove habitats in search of food and shelter. The component on Coupling Species and Habitat: Fish Movements and Habitat Coupling will conduct mark-recapture experiments on juvenile and adult fishes to determine the pathways and extent of ontogenetic and feeding migrations, respectively.
Networks of marine reserves require interchange between their individual units. On the large scale, this connectivity results from the process of larval dispersal. Simulation experiments conducted within the Physical Oceanography component will be used to characterize the potential dispersal of larvae (direction, distance, spread) from any site within Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands. The model will allow for larval behavior of any target species to be included.
While prospective marine reserves may be well designed from a biological perspective, their success ultimately depends on whether they are implemented in a socially and politically responsible manner. Knowledge, perceptions, stakeholders, communities’ social investment, critical environmental and social issues, regulations and policies are the outstanding elements of a matrix of elements that are, jointly with the scientific information on habitats, species, and models, essential for the successful implementation of marine reserves. Socio-economic studies will identify the relevant stakeholders and assess their attitudes, perceptions and beliefs on resource conservation, institutional framework, the role of “ocean centrality” in local communities, environmental threats and impacts, the health of the environment, and potential roles and impacts of MPAs. This will be coupled with an analysis of the policy process, through the assessment of the potential for participatory approaches to MPAs within the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Together, these studies seek to identify approaches to maximize community participation in and acceptance of MPA design and implementation.
